Why Winning Candidates Always Chase the Early Voters
As I have written not all voters are equal. Some voters are more important than others because they always vote. These high propensity voters are key to winning many elections, especially if turnout is low.
There’s also a subset of these valuable voters that’s especially important if you want to in. It’s the early voters.
These are the voters who literally who vote early and vote often. No I’m not talking about nor encouraging voter fraud. These are the regular, voters who always turnout in an election and cast their votes well before Election Day.
Psychologists, police officers, and social workers will all tell you that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. We politicos know this to be true.
If a person votes in every election, they’re likely to vote in the next election. If someone only votes in November elections when the presidential contest is on the ballot, we know to ignore them in a campaign unless the race is up the same time as the presidency.
These consistent voters are referred to as high propensity voters. You can count on them voting in your contest. You have to communicate with them because many times they will decide who wins your race.
There’s a subset of high propensity voters that are extremely important for you to be targeting with your campaign’s communications.
We call them the Early Voters.
Early voters are high propensity voters who get their ballot in the mail, fill it out, and mail it back fast. Or they show up at an Early Voting polling location and vote while many voters are still thinking about who they might support.
Early Voters often cast their ballots days or weeks before Election Day.
They aren’t affected by last minute mistakes or bombshell revelations that happen in the last days of a campaign. They made up their minds early and there’s no way to get their ballot back if they change their mind before Election Day.
Which is why these early voters who are also high propensity voters are so important.
Many campaigns don’t really get going until about four or five weeks before Election Day. This undervalues the Early Voters and leaves them to their own devices and research to pick a candidate to support.
That’s not how elections are won. They’re won by taking your message directly to the voters in a compelling way that makes them your supporters.
I advise my clients to start contacting voters three to four months before Election Day. I tell them to start knocking on the doors of the high propensity voters. If they can’t reach them on the doorstep, then they should call them in the evening.
Extra emphasis should be put on reaching these early high propensity voters at this time.
If you can bring the early voters into your support column and lock them up, you have a good chance of winning.
Things happen in a campaign that even the best candidates can’t control. Words come out wrong or are taken out of context by the press. A new issue rises in importance that plays to your opponents strengths. Outside special interests pour money into the race late against you.
These things shake up races and turn them into nail biters.
The best way to defend against that is to get to the early voters as early as possible. Win them to your side with your story and your platform. Bank those votes that come in 20 days or more before the polls close on Election Day.
In the worst case scenario they may help you squeak to victory. In the best case scenario, they can help you increase your winning percentage and give you a mandate for your plan to improve your community.
Either way, you’re in this to win it. Chasing the early voters for their support is a proven method that I’ve seen help candidates win again and again.